Risk pricing

Banks have to put in place proper risk-pricing mechanism, especially for funding long-gestation infra projects, if they want to prevent an encore of the present bad loan pile-up, Reserve Bank deputy governor NS Vishwanathan has said.

Banks are saddled with over Rs 10 trillion bad loans in the system, most of them in infrastructure sectors like power, steel and road projects, forcing the RBI to list as many 40 largest NPA accounts, which constitute 40 per cent of the mess, to be referred to the national debt tribunals for recovery and resolution in 2017.

He said in many instances risk is underpriced so as to demonstrate that a project would be sustainable, and hence would be good to finance.

"It would be safe to assume that had proper risk pricing been done, many of the current NPAs could have properly assessed very well,in advance," Vishwanathan told a credit markets conclave organised by Care Ratings today.

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The gross non-performing assets of banks rose by 18.5 per cent on an annualised basis in the September quarter to 0ver 10.2 per cent system wide or a little over Rs 10 trillion in absolute terms. And the regulator has projected it would cross 10.8 per cent by this March.

The deputy governor said once a creditor has decided to sanction a loan to a potential debtor, the next step for them is to arrive at a risk-adjusted pricing, and this is one area where banks needs to upgrade their skills.

"Risk-based loan pricing would need fair assessment and understanding of the risks involved rather than merely relying on collateral and/or guarantees obtained from stakeholders, including equity holders," Vishwanathan said.

Banks should charge interest commensurate with the risks involved in the project that is being financed, he said.

Proper risk pricing will involves sophisticated assessment of risks and banks should be mindful of the stage of the business cycle in which the borrowers are in at any given point of time.

"Risk-based pricing will always help the banks to build buffers that could act as cushions in case of certain projects turn bad," he said.

Vishwanathan said an important aspect of the loan is the covenants that include the terms and conditions of the project in the loan agreement.

He said banks should continuously monitor pre- specified trigger point in loan covenants to identify and rectify, if possible, early stress.

"It should be kept in mind that as the stress persists in an asset the expected value of recovery also diminishes. Therefore, this brings us to the need to act early when first sign of stress occurs in an asset," he noted.

The deputy governor said in the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, the possibility of equity holders losing an entity should result in both stakeholders--creditors as well as debtor, to work towards resolution that is best for them.

Therefore, coordination mechanisms among banks, through institutional platform like joint lending forum (JLF) must ideally be deployed before the account is classified as special mention account (SMA).

"We have mandated JLF when the account is in SMA 2. I would rather suggest that moment the default happens, even a day or two, banks should start getting alert," he said.

He said loan covenants need to be strengthened to deter the management of borrowers to take action to maximise their profits even it means at the expense of creditors.

Banks's boards have to play a major role in enforcing the loan covenants through proper drafting of policies that would guide the man in charge and require to embolden the staff to take the decisions.


Lenders must protect their interest by writing strong covenants, strictly enforcing the covenants, properly pricing of risk and reacting to early warning signals about incipient stress that is building up, he said, adding "all this should be embedded into the credit culture of banks.

SUV sub segments

Robust financials, reasonable valuations, and a strong presence in a niche area make Goodyear India a good long-term investment.

The business
Goodyear India (GDYR) is a leading manufacturer of automotive bias tyres viz. farm tyres and commercial truck tyres. It also trades in “Goodyear” branded tyres manufactured by Goodyear South Asia Tyres Private Limited (GSATPL), Aurangabad. The other products which the company markets and sells include tubes and flaps.

We like the following about the company:

Niche player – Farm Equipment Tyre
Goodyear is a niche player in Indian tractor tyre industry with a market share of over 30 percent. The company directly supplies to companies such as M&M, Escorts Agro Machinery and John Deere.

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Strong industry tailwinds
The company generates most of its revenues from farm tyres. The segment is doing well as tractor sales have been on the rise because of normal monsoon last year. In volume terms, tractor sales are up 16 percent so far this financial year, compared to the same period the previous year.

We expect the momentum in tractor sales to continue because of:
1. The strategic importance of rural economics to India's economy. We see a very high likelihood of government’s focus on agriculture and its target of doubling the farmers’ income by FY22
2. Normal monsoon leading to improved rural sentiment
3. Improvement in farm machination

All these factors will boost demand for farm equipment, benefiting Goodyear.

Focus on CV and PV tyre segment
Apart from tractor tyres, the company has also been focusing on the commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle segments. Both these segments are in a strong uptrend currently.

The commercial vehicle segment had a bumpy ride in FY17 as first demonetisation and then GST-led de-stocking impacted sales. Restocking has now resumed as evident from the sales numbers for last two months.

There are multiple triggers for the growth in the passenger vehicle segment as well. Rising per capital income, low penetration, and the government’s focus on increasing rural income are expected to drive demand for passenger vehicles.

Within passenger vehicles, the company is focusing on luxury and SUV sub segments as the management sees demand for premium vehicles growing. The company has partnered with premium car makers to supply tyres.

Currently, the company is also working on expanding distribution, strengthening its presence in branded retail stores and building its brand in the digital space.

Ownership – lends comfort
Goodyear India is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company (USA), which has 74 percent stake in the company. Institutional investors with sizeable stakes in the company include SBI Magnum Balance Fund & SBI Emerging Businesses Fund which holds 4.51 percent stake and Goldman Sachs which has 2.36 percent stake.

Immune to electric vehicle disruption
The imminent disruption from electric vehicles will not affect tyre makers in general as tyres are  critical for the mobility of any type of vehicle.

Strong financial performance
Goodyear is a cash rich (~19 percent of the current market cap), debt-free company and has reported good financial numbers over past few years.

Despite flat top line over CY13-FY17, the company posted a strong growth of 11.2 percent and 10.6 percent in its EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) and profit after tax over the same period, respectively. Over the same period, EBITDA margin also expanded by 438 bps and was at 14.3 percent in FY17.

The management is focussed on maintaining margins even if that comes at the cost of sales volumes. Hence, the company’s top line growth was muted and its profitability grew significantly and margins expanded even in times when raw material prices were not favourable.

Revenue Pat Margin

In terms of return ratios, average Return on Equity and Return on Capital Employed stood at 21.9 percent and 34 percent, respectively, over CY13-FY17.

Return ratios

In terms of valuation, the company is trading at 18.0 and 15.6 times FY18 and FY19 projected earnings, which make it a reasonably valued stock in tyre space with very strong fundamentals and growth outlook.

Good_Projections

Peer Comparison

Risk and concerns

The biggest risk for the company is a spike in raw material prices (natural rubber), as they account for a big chunk of the costs. However, the track record of the company suggests it has historically been able to manage the rise in the raw material prices to its customers. The lowest EBITDA margin that the company posted was 6.7 percent in last 10 years. Hence, raw material prices does not pose a very big concern for Goodyear.

Reliance Alternative Invst Fund sells 8.5 lakh shares of Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances

Reliance Alternative Invst Fund sells 8.5 lakh shares of Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances
Standard Chartered Mutual Fund bought 3,00,000 shares of Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances at Rs 579.99.

  

On January 12, 2018 IDFC Mutual Fund bought 1,00,000 shares of Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances at Rs 580 on the NSE.

Also, Kacholia Ashish bought 1,52,404 shares at Rs 580 and Standard Chartered Mutual Fund bought 3,00,000 shares at Rs 579.99.

However, Reliance Alternative Invst Fund Pvt Eq Scheme I. sold 8,50,000 shares at Rs 580.67.

On Friday, Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances ended at Rs 582.30, up Rs 10.80, or 1.89 percent.


It has touched a 52-week high of Rs 600.05.

Budget 2018: GDP growth not justifiable unless benefits reach farmers

Budget 2018: GDP growth not justifiable unless benefits reach farmers: FM
The government's priority is to ensure the gains reach the farmers and the growth is visible even in the farm sector, he said at an event here.
  

Ahead of the Budget, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley today said the agriculture sector is the top priority for the government because the country's economic growth is not "justifiable and equitable" unless the benefits are "clear and evident" in the farm sector.

Therefore, the government's priority is to ensure the gains reach the farmers and the growth is visible even in the farm sector, he said at an event here.

As per latest Central Statistics Office (CSO) data, the country's economic growth is expected to slow to a four-year low of 6.5 percent in the 2017-18 iscal, the lowest under the Modi-led government, mainly due to poor performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

The CSO has pegged farm and allied sector growth to slow to 2.1 percent in the current fiscal from 4.9 percent in the preceding year.


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"India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and the growth is benefiting people in different sectors.

"But maximum population is dependent on agri-sector and unless the gains are clear and evident, the (economic) growth is not justifiable and equitable," Jaitley said after launching options trading in guarseed on NCDEX.

Among the priority areas, agriculture sector is on the top, he said. "Ensuring the benefits reach the agri-sector and growth is visible -- this is among the priority areas for us."

Jaitley further said: "We see in some places the problem of falling prices because of higher production. Farmers are not getting the price for their produce."

He said many steps have been taken in the last few years to take farmers out of this situation. "There has been some impact," he said.

Lauding the contribution of farmers, he said they have left no stone unturned to serve the nation.

They have worked hard to turn a food shortage country to a surplus now. However, due to higher production, they are now faced with falling prices, he added.

The minister also mentioned that the launch of options trading is one of the major steps taken to help farmers.


In the beginning, options trading may look like a small step but when its awareness increases in the coming days, it is will benefit farmers, he added.

Tax free Rs 20 lakh gratuity for employees to be a reality soon

Tax free Rs 20 lakh gratuity for employees to be a reality soon
At present formal sector workers with five or more years of service are eligible for Rs 10 lakh tax-free gratuity after leaving their job or at time of superannuation.

  

Payment of Gratuity Amendment Bill 2017 is likely to be passed in the forthcoming Budget session, which will make formal sector workers eligible for tax-free Rs 20 lakh gratuity.

At present formal sector workers with five or more years of service are eligible for Rs 10 lakh tax-free gratuity after leaving their job or at time of superannuation.

"The Payment of Gratuity (Amendment) Bill, 2017 will be passed in the Budget session of Parliament, expected to begin by the end of this month," a source said.

The source further said, "The government wants to provide tax-free gratuity of Rs 20 lakh to organised sector workers at par with Central government".


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The bill was introduced in the Lok Sabha in the winter session of Parliament last month. Once the bill is passed by Parliament, the government will not be required to go to it again for deciding the quantum of tax-free gratuity.

The bill seeks to allow the government to notify the period of maternity leave and gratuity that can be availed by employees under a central law.

The Payment of Gratuity (Amendment) Bill, 2017 was introduced by labour minister Santosh Kumar Gangwar in the Lok Sabha on December 18, 2017.

The Payment of Gratuity Act, 1972, was enacted to provide for gratuity payment to employees engaged in factories, mines, oilfields, plantations, ports, railway companies, shops or other establishments.

The law is applicable to employees, who have completed at least five years of continuous service in an establishment that has ten or more persons.

The amendment will also allow the central government to notify the maternity leave period for "female employees as deemed to be in continuous service in place of existing twelve weeks".

The proposal comes against the backdrop of the Maternity Benefit (Amendment) Act, 2017 enhancing the maximum maternity leave period to 26 weeks.

With respect to gratuity, the amount is calculated on the basis of a formula which is 15 days of wages for each year of completed services, subject to the ceiling of Rs 10 lakh. This limit was fixed in 2010.


After implementation of the 7th Central Pay Commission, the ceiling of gratuity amount for central government employees has been increased from Rs 10 lakh to Rs 20 lakh.

Bank Nifty futures

The Nifty50 continued its journey upwards to a new all-time high of 10,690 and ended the week with gains of 1 percent. Incremental long built-up of 13 percent was witnessed during the week.

The Nifty options data signifies the highest accumulation in 10500 PE of 81 lakh shares. Close to 15 million shares open interest (OI) is outstanding in the vicinity of 10500-10600 puts indicating vital support zone for Nifty.

Call writers remain relatively sideways as resistance beyond 10700 is placed straight at 11000. Maximum OI for Nifty is seen at 11000 CE with 47 lakh shares.


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During the week, significant OI of 50 lakh shares were added in Put strike of 10600 followed by 10500 strikes of 31 lakh shares.

Call writers shifted their position higher from 10500-10600 to 10700-10900. Further decoding Participant activity in the Index Options it reveals that in the last 1 week, FII added 30496 contracts on net Put short side and 61105 contracts on net Call long side indicating their positive bias.

graph1

On the other end, the client (retails) created a bearish view by adding net put long of 85432 contracts and net call short of 56501 contracts. PRO participant added net Put short of 58734 contracts and net call short of 4605 contracts.

India VIX, a barometer of riskiness, continues to gyrate in the band of 12-14 percent reconfirming the strength in trend.

graph2

PCR-OI strike wise too support the bullishness. 10500 strike PCR moved higher from 1.66 to 3.64. 10600 strike PCR stands a 1.93 substantiating the strength of the trend.

Bank Nifty futures continued to move higher and ended the week with the gain of 0.50 percent and OI accumulation of 23 percent. The index made a new high of last 6 weeks at 25803. Bank Nifty options data suggest activity near 26000-26200 CE and 25700-25500 PE.


Large heavyweight banking stocks are also witnessing accumulation. With range breakout in Bank Nifty, it is expected to move higher towards 26100-26200. Thus a bullish strategy Bear Call Ladder is recommended.

Deloitte launches creative digital consultancy in India

Riding the wave of digital transformation in India, Deloitte Digital, the creative digital consultancy within Deloitte Touche Tomatsu India LLP, has launched its operations in the country.

"Technology has become a part of the strategic priority of enterprises. New businesses are hinging on technology, and have to prioritise work with an eye on predicting the future. Technology has to be built into the business plans and will be in the forefront of CEOs and executives agendas," Rakesh Barik, partner, leader for technology at Deloitte India told PTI.

With a presence in 48 countries and global clients, Deloitte Digital intends to extend its expertise in digital transformation for businesses in the Indian market with studios in Mumbai, Hyderabad, and Bengaluru.

Bill Briggs, the chief technology officer of Deloitte Consulting pointed out that the next 18-24 months would be critical for enterprises where blockchain, cognitive and digital reality technologies being poised to redefine business models.

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"For years, IT has helped re-engineer the businesses, yet few shops have re-engineered themselves with the same vision, discipline and rigour. That's about to change. Over the next 18-24 months, we will see CIOs re-engineering not only their IT shops but broadly, their approaches to technology. I call this Horizon 1.5," Briggs said.

Globally, Deloitte Digital, which has grown its capabilities both organically and inorganically, will help organisations with a complete suite of core services covering digital strategy and transformation, activating a digital mindset, create solutions to enhance the digital experience, and create digital engagement platforms to support companies.

"Deloitte Digital combines its globally recognised strength in business transformation and technology implementation with the creative and digital capabilities of its studios to advance the customer experience for businesses around the world," Ajit Kumar, leader, Deloitte Digital, Deloitte India said.

"It is a combination of a digital agency and consultancy under one, integrated, global practice. It is the right time to set up shop in India as brands here are eager to embrace digital. With the Indian government's emphasis on digital initiatives, we would like to drive this mission home," he added.

From strategy to execution, Deloitte Digital aims to help Indian organisations imagine bigger and scale their operations through innovative solutions that increase the impact of digital on their customers, suppliers, employees and partners.


Sectors served by Deloitte Digital's new offices include banking and insurance, manufacturing, energy and resources, retail and consumer goods, healthcare and life sciences, technology, media and telecom and the public sector, particularly the government's smart cities initiative.

IDFC Bank to merge with Capital First

IDFC Bank to merge with Capital First; V Vaidyanathan to be CEO of merged entity
The swap ratio indicated that for 10 equity shares Of Capital First, 139 Shares of IDFC Bank will be allotted.

IDFC Bank today announced a merger with non-banking financial company Capital First after a board meeting held earlier today approved the arrangement. The swap ratio has been fixed at 139:10 (139 shares of IDFC Bank will be allotted for every 10 equity shares of Capital First).

As part of the deal, Bipin Gemani, the Chief Financial Officer of IDFC Limited has resigned from the company and will now be joining as the interim CFO of IDFC Bank. V Vaidyanathan, currently Chairman and MD of Capital First, will succeed Rajiv Lall as MD and CEO of the combined entity upon completion of the merger and necessary regulatory approvals.

In a press statement, the bank said this announcement is pursuant to IDFC Bank's stated strategy of ‘retailising’ its business to complete their transformation from a dedicated infrastructure financier to a well-diversified universal bank, and in line with Capital First’s stated intention and strategy to convert to a universal bank.

“We believe this merger will be transformational for IDFC Bank. It will bring two tech savvy, culturally aligned platforms to come together to create a diversified and fast growing universal bank with a national footprint, in a manner that will be value accretive for all shareholders,” said Lall.

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This deal is subject to reguilatory clearances including from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and other authorities.

Capital First brings with it a retail lending franchise with a loan book of Rs 22,974 crore (September 2017), a live customer base of three million customers; and a distribution network in 228 locations.

Vaidyanathan said they acknowledge a banking platform provides a stable diversified liability base, and is hence critical for building a large franchise.

“We are excited about this merger because IDFC Bank provides a perfect platform for continued growth of the combined franchise, supported by low-cost funding,” he added.

Post the merger, the combined entity of IDFC Bank and Capital First will have an AUM of Rs 88,000 crore; PAT of Rs 1,268 crore (FY17). Further, there will be a combined distribution network comprising 194 branches (as per branch count of December 2017 of both entities), 353 dedicated BC outlets and over 9,100 micro ATM points, serving more than five million customers across the country.

Post the merger, Lall will step into the role of non-executive Chairman of IDFC Bank, subject to regulatory approvals, and guide the transition process. He will replace Veena Mankar who will remain on the Board.


In 2015, IDFC had received the banking licence from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and was among the new banks (including Bandhan Bank) to get an approval from RBI to start banking operations, Capital First, on the other hand, is a non-banking financial company engaged in the lending business.

Gold up on weaker dollar, heads for fifth gain on week

Gold up on weaker dollar, heads for fifth gain on week
Spot gold edged up 0.1 percent to $1,324 an ounce by 0100 GMT. Prices hit a near four-month high of $1,326.56 an ounce on Wednesday.


Gold prices rose for a third straight session on Friday on a weaker dollar, with the precious metal on track for a fifth straight weekly gain.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold edged up 0.1 percent to $1,324 an ounce by 0100 GMT. Prices hit a near four-month high of $1,326.56 an ounce on Wednesday.

* Spot gold has risen 0.3 percent so far this week.

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* U.S. gold futures were up 0.2 percent at $1,324.60 an ounce.

* The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six rival currencies, was down 0.2 percent at 91.707, after earlier falling to its lowest since Sept. 20, 2017 at 91.689.

* The euro jumped against the dollar as the European Central Bank signalled it could begin to wind down its 2.5 trillion euro ($3.01 trillion) stimulus programme this year.

* The ECB should revisit its communication stance in early 2018, accounts of its December meeting showed, suggesting that policymakers could soon start preparing markets for the end of the bank's massive stimulus.

* A stronger euro potentially boosts demand for gold by making dollar-priced bullion cheaper for European investors.

* The greenback was also under pressure after data showed U.S. producer prices fell for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years in December amid declining costs for services.

* Weak inflation at the producer level could add to concerns that the factors restraining inflation could become more persistent and result in the U.S. Federal Reserve being more cautious about raising interest rates this year.

* Higher rates could dent demand for non-interest-paying gold.

* Brent crude prices hit $70 a barrel on signs of tightening crude stocks but settled off that level on Thursday.

* Asian stocks resumed their ascent on Friday, supported by U.S. earnings optimism and a rise in oil prices.


* One person was killed and part of South Africa's Royal Bafokeng Platinum's (RBPlat) conveyor belt was burnt during overnight protests at one of its shafts in the country's North West Province, the platinum producer said on Thursday.

Infosys to announce Q3 earnings on Friday

Infosys to announce Q3 earnings on Friday; here are 5 key things to watch out
The key things to watch out for would be its full year guidance and management commentary. Overall it is expected to be soft quarter due to seasonality.
  

Infosys, the country's second largest software services provider, will announce its third quarter earnings on Friday. The key things to watch out for would be its full year guidance and management commentary. Overall it is expected to be soft quarter due to seasonality.

The stock rallied 15.6 percent in quarter ended December 2017, trading at 14.3 times its FY19 EPS.

As it is seasonally a weak quarter for IT companies due to holidays in western markets, here are five key factors that investors will focus on:-

Profit

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Infosys is expected to report profit for the quarter at Rs 3,609 crore, down 3.14 percent compared to Rs 3,726 crore in previous quarter, according to average of estimates of analysts polled by CNBC-TV18.

Weak earnings before interest & tax (EBIT) and low other income may pull profit lower during the quarter.

Revenue

Analysts expect company's revenue to grow 1.5 percent sequentially to Rs 17,823 crore from Rs 17,567 crore.

Dollar revenue may grow 1 percent to USD 2,754 million from USD 2,728 million QoQ and constant currency growth is expected to be at 1 percent.

Retail was soft in Q2 and that is expected to be weak in Q3 also.

Operational Performance

Operational efficiency levers have been squeezed materially over the last few quarters, so margin expansion might be limited during the quarter.

EBIT margin is likely to contract at 24.1 percent in Q3FY18, compared to 24.2 percent in Q2FY18.

Analysts see negligible cross currency impact on earnings.

Guidance

Full year guidance is the most important factor to watch out for in earnings.

All analysts expect Infosys to maintain its full year constant currency revenue growth guidance at 5.5-6.5 percent and EBIT margin at 23-25 percent.


After Q2FY18 earnings, the company had revised its FY18 guidance lower to 5.5-6.5 percent YoY, implying an ask rate of 0.4-1.6 percent for second half of FY18.

The Post Graduate Certificate Programme in Finance (PGCPF) from IIM Indore

The Post Graduate Certificate Programme in Finance (PGCPF) offers a unique blend of Global Prospective in Banking & Finance with hands on experience in practical aspects of the financial markets.

Eligibility

Candidates with 3-year bachelor’s degree certificates from Universities recognised by the Association of Indian Universities with minimum 50% marks and at least two years of work experience
Relaxation in two years of experience may be considered for professionally qualified individuals like CA / ICWA / CS / CFA / CFP
Programme Highlights

Delivers working and applied knowledge in core areas of Finance
Helps build Managerial and Technical skills
Certificate of Completion from IIM Indore
Provides Alumni status (Executive Education) of IIM Indore
One week campus module at IIM Indore with faculty interactions and class schedule
Convenient weekend schedule

Please note that by submitting the above mentioned details, you are authorising us to call you even though you may be registered under DNC.

Technical analysis

Why technicals ?
The markets have been rallying in the last few months and many a trader / investor is wondering
if there is a method in the madness in the process of investing. Technical analysis shows a way
out to the serious player who is interested in optimising his returns on investments. I would
advocate every player who has some interest in stocks should have a working knowledge of
technical analysis. Going by the maxim of " knowledge is power " , technical studies provide
handy tools akin to the versatile swiss army knife to all players. In this first piece in the series of
three articles, we take a step-by-step approach to understanding this subject.
What is technical analysis ?
Technical analysis is all about studying stock price graphs and a few momentum oscillators
derived thereof. It must be understood that technical studies are based entirely on prices and do
not include balance sheets, P&L accounts ( fundamental analysis ), the assumption being that the
markets are efficient and all possible price sensitive information is built into the price graph of a
security / index. Therefore, technical analysis supports the efficient market theory as against the
"random walk theory" which supports the belief that stocks can be bought / sold on random
events like flipping a coin !!! I believe that technical analysis is more dynamic as compared to
fundamental analysis based on one simple argument - fundamental analysts depend on
corporate events like quarterly results and special announcements like earnings guidance and
policy changes in operations to generate a buy / sell recommendation. If fundamental analysis
was the single most reliable indicator of trends, prices would predominantly fluctuate only 4 - 5
times a year - around quarterly results and special announcements like mergers and acquisitions
etc !! Why would prices fluctuate almost daily ? If the prices fluctuate ever so often, is there a way
to forecast them ? yes according to technical analysis !!
• Is a medley of Science & art. No algaebraic /
empirical formulae.
• Involves study of price charts and oscillators
derived thereon.
• Study regards price as the ultimate factor, which
factors in fundamental factors as well. Does not
subscribe to the random walk theory.
• Signals generated by market action on prices.
• Chances of multiple interpretations are higher.
• Will generate more signals, works for catching
MOST price movements.
• Will generally generate signals in advance.
• Involves built-in capital / risk management
techniques.
• Is a pure science form, involves pre-set
parameters for investment decision
support systems.
• Involves study of Balance Sheets, P & L
accounts.
• Study regards price movements as a
random phenomena, caused by market
forces.
• Signals generated by corporate
actions.
• Chances of multiple interpretations are
lower.
• Will generate fewer signals, works
better for catching major moves.
• Will generally generate delayed
signals.
• Involves NO risk / capital management
techniques.
Schools of thought
Technical analysis has evolved over a period of centuries and every geographical region has
contributed it's flavour to the study. The west has given us the venerable Dow theory which was
advocated in the early 1900's and the Elliot wave theory advocated by R.N. Elliot. While the dow
theory ( using typical bar charts and oscillators as we know them ) remains the most basic and
widely practiced due to it's simplicity, elliot theory uses intraday charts and bases it's computation
on the principle that prices move in waves and that upmoves come in 5 waves and downmoves in
3 waves. Oriental theories are as old as the hills as the japanese candlestick theories formulated
by the rice traders in Sakata province of Japan. They use bullish and bearish candles to
determine the trends in the markets. This theory uses life-like terminology like the morning star,
hanging man, evening stars etc to denote chart patterns. The Chinese have the yin and yang
theory which is similar to the Japanese candle-stick patterns. I would advocate using the Dow
theory based on the sheer simplicity of the same.
Tools of the trade / tricks of the trade
Technical analysis requires an efficient charting system. While it is almost mandatory to have a
computer and a software that will generate charts based on periodic data updates available,
some basic studies can be carried out with a simple graph paper being used as a charting board
with a X & Y axis. Most newspapers provide price updates with volumes which should be
sufficient to plot basic price graphs. If you have a PC and a software you are already a few steps
ahead.
The nuts and bolts
In a complex looking charting screen, it must be remembered that the price graph is the meat and
the oscillators are the ketchup. The mistake most novice technical analysts make is to give an
excessive emphasis to oscillators. Please remember that oscillators are derived from price
graphs and not vice-a-versa !! Another aspect that I would stress emphatically is the fact that an
objective approach is needed to succeed using technicals. Try to see what the chart is telling you


rather than what you want to see in the chart.

Stocks in news

Bulls did not disappoint investors in the first month of the new calendar year as Indian market rose to fresh record highs consistently so far in the month of January.

The rally in Indian markets is not yet over but the money is likely to be made in individual stocks. The risk-to-reward ratio with respect to indices in the short term looks limited, but the current bull run is likely to span out for next 10-15 years.

"We stand at an inflection point whereby there is a high probability that the economy and the markets will shift a gear higher in the year 2018," Sunil Subramaniam, CEO, Sundaram Mutual told Moneycontrol.

"The equity markets would increasingly look at earnings delivery given the fact that valuations are robust based on trailing returns. We strongly believe that we are still in the initial stages of a long-term bull market which can span 10 to 15 years," he said.


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Investors are better off betting on stocks which can deliver benchmark beating gains. The optimism stems from the fact that earnings are likely to register double-digit gains in the in the FY19.

“We expect strong momentum to continue for equity market over FY19 due to revival in earnings after teething problems of GST, low base of demonetisation, increasing focus of government on infrastructure development even at the cost of fiscal slippage and favourable global headwinds with favourable commodity prices,” Abhinav Gupta, President - Capital Markets, Share India Securities told Moneycontrol.

“Increasing government spend will lead to higher purchasing power and we expect earnings to grow at around 17-18 percent over next year. We maintain our year-end Nifty target at 12,500 in line with current multiples and pricing in the earnings growth over the course of the year,” he said.

We have collated a list of 5 stocks from various brokerage house on stocks which could emerge as a dark horse in 2018 and beyond:

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories:

CLSA which has an outperform rating on Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories said that Dr. Reddy’s Lab could be a dark horse in 2018 if it is able to monetise its complex products pipeline in a timely manner. The stock has fallen over 21 percent in the calendar year 2017.

Global pharma consolidation will gather steam in 2018 as challenging industry dynamics in the USA drive supplier-side consolidation whereas, in India, the government’s focus on improving quality and good-manufacturing-practice compliance could increase market share at top companies.

Gujarat Gas:

Citigroup sees Gujarat Gas as a Dark Horse in the gas space. Gujarat Gas (GG) is one of India’s largest player in the industrial gas segment and city gas distribution (CGD) with a dominant presence in Gujarat.

The company has been rapidly expanding its reach in Gujarat by way of securing licenses to expand its CGD network across five new areas, making it to 19 districts of Gujarat, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Thane and Palghar in Maharashtra.

The current rising environmental concerns and the government’s aim to switch to gas-based economy put companies like Gujarat gas in a sweet spot, ICICIdirect said in a report.

“We believe the company’s strong CGD network offers good demand potential due to lower CNG, residential PNG penetration and increased usage of natural gas for industrial volumes,” it said. The domestic brokerage firm has a BUY rating with a target price of Rs1000.

DLF:

ICICI Securities which has a buy rating on DLF sees the real estate player emerging as a dark horse in the next 2-3 years.

DLF is the likely dark horse over the next 2-3 years in the sector, said the report. The promoter stake sale in its rental SPV to GIC Singapore being concluded, DLF is set to receive Rs140-150bn of proceeds by Q4FY18 through promoter fund infusion/QIP which will bring down DLF’s debt by half.

A fresh infusion of money would enable the company to refocus on its strategy in the residential segment, which has been a laggard over the last 4 years.

Tata Motors:

Emkay sees Tata Motors emerging as a ‘Dark Horse’ in the automobile space. Tata Motors would be our dark horse, as currency worries subside and volume growth momentum persists. Among ancillaries, Emkay like Apollo Tyres and Exide Industries, it said in a report.

The Indian automobile industry is in a sweet spot on the back of a cyclical recovery across segments. Rural India is turning out to be the growth frontier for the automobile industry, as near-normal monsoon for 2 years and receding effect of demonetization have bolstered consumer confidence.

Dynemic Products Ltd:

Rudra Shares and Stock Broking who has an Accumulate recommendation on Dynemic Products Ltd. The company is a leading global manufacturers & distributor of Food Colors, Lake Colors, and Blended Colors & US-FDA certified FD&C Dyes.

The future of Dyestuff and Dye Intermediates has good prospects in the coming years owing to its high demand. The growth of dye sector in the future will continue to depend on the performance of end-user industries like paints, textiles, printing inks, paper, plastics, and foodstuffs, said the report.


Food Processing Industries is increasing at a high growth rate in almost every country thus opening the door for the high demand for products that increases the shelf life of processed food. So the overall demand for the antioxidant is expected to increase in coming years.

Gold prices

Gold prices recovered smartly at the bullion market here today taking positive cues from global market amid pick-up in buying by local jewellers to meet wedding season demand.

Elsewhere, silver also firmed up owing to higher industrial demand.

Standard gold (99.5 purity) strengthened by Rs 235 to end at Rs 29,830 per 10 grams from yesterday's closing level of Rs 29,595.

Pure gold (99.9 purity) also added by a similar margin to settle at Rs 29,980 per 10 grams as compared to Rs 29,745.


Silver (.999 fineness) rose by Rs 255 per kg to finish at Rs 38,850 from Rs 38,595 earlier.


Globally, Gold rose to a four-month high and was on track for a fifth straight weekly gain as the dollar fell against the euro on an agreement for a political coalition in Germany.

Spot gold rose 0.7 percent to USD 1,331.62 an ounce at early trade.


Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.9 percent to USD 17.13 an ounce, heading for its first weekly loss in five weeks. Silver is up 0.6 per cent so far this week.

Projections of stock market

Projecting a pick up in the domestic job market, stock brokerage UBS Securities India has raised concerns on quality of such employment and has flagged risk from a global shift towards automation.

According to the report, job creation could push up GDP growth towards 7.5 per cent and Nifty earnings growth at 12-15 per cent over the next five years.

"Consensus estimates of a near-term earnings recovery and implied long-term growth incorporate a sharp pickup in job creation," UBS said in a report.

"However, we believe the quality of jobs could underwhelm, and there are downside risks, including from the global automation 'utopia' scenario, over the long-term," it added noting that the markets have not factored in these risks.

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The brokerage has estimated creation of 4 million jobs annually over the next five years, up from an estimated 2 million per annum over the past five years.

The report has identified four broad areas that can help drive job creation. They include traditional/local services like banking, retail, logistics and IT; housing/construction; textile/apparel manufacturing and public/social services.

As per UBS about 13 million people will enter India's working-age population annually over the next five to six years. Considering the labour participation rate, about 7 million of these people will actually be looking for a job.

Noting that a large global shift towards automation could serve as a significant negative for the job market. It would be inherently less labour-intensive, and UBS said this could be a "grey-sky scenario for India" in terms of GDP and earnings growth, and could also lead to major social issues.

"This impact is likely to be beyond the next five years and government policy response (more protectionism and a ‘Universal Basic Income’) will matter," UBS added.


It also expects growth in the number of households to be stable in the lower-middle income bracket but decelerate in the middle-middle bracket, reflecting a "worsening job quality mix, with slowing growth in IT services jobs but accelerating growth in construction and apparel jobs".

Robust financials

Robust financials, reasonable valuations, and a strong presence in a niche area make Goodyear India a good long-term investment.

The business
Goodyear India (GDYR) is a leading manufacturer of automotive bias tyres viz. farm tyres and commercial truck tyres. It also trades in “Goodyear” branded tyres manufactured by Goodyear South Asia Tyres Private Limited (GSATPL), Aurangabad. The other products which the company markets and sells include tubes and flaps.

We like the following about the company:

Niche player – Farm Equipment Tyre
Goodyear is a niche player in Indian tractor tyre industry with a market share of over 30 percent. The company directly supplies to companies such as M&M, Escorts Agro Machinery and John Deere.

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Strong industry tailwinds
The company generates most of its revenues from farm tyres. The segment is doing well as tractor sales have been on the rise because of normal monsoon last year. In volume terms, tractor sales are up 16 percent so far this financial year, compared to the same period the previous year.

We expect the momentum in tractor sales to continue because of:
1. The strategic importance of rural economics to India's economy. We see a very high likelihood of government’s focus on agriculture and its target of doubling the farmers’ income by FY22
2. Normal monsoon leading to improved rural sentiment
3. Improvement in farm machination

All these factors will boost demand for farm equipment, benefiting Goodyear.

Focus on CV and PV tyre segment
Apart from tractor tyres, the company has also been focusing on the commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle segments. Both these segments are in a strong uptrend currently.

The commercial vehicle segment had a bumpy ride in FY17 as first demonetisation and then GST-led de-stocking impacted sales. Restocking has now resumed as evident from the sales numbers for last two months.

There are multiple triggers for the growth in the passenger vehicle segment as well. Rising per capital income, low penetration, and the government’s focus on increasing rural income are expected to drive demand for passenger vehicles.

Within passenger vehicles, the company is focusing on luxury and SUV sub segments as the management sees demand for premium vehicles growing. The company has partnered with premium car makers to supply tyres.

Currently, the company is also working on expanding distribution, strengthening its presence in branded retail stores and building its brand in the digital space.

Ownership – lends comfort
Goodyear India is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company (USA), which has 74 percent stake in the company. Institutional investors with sizeable stakes in the company include SBI Magnum Balance Fund & SBI Emerging Businesses Fund which holds 4.51 percent stake and Goldman Sachs which has 2.36 percent stake.

Immune to electric vehicle disruption
The imminent disruption from electric vehicles will not affect tyre makers in general as tyres are  critical for the mobility of any type of vehicle.

Strong financial performance
Goodyear is a cash rich (~19 percent of the current market cap), debt-free company and has reported good financial numbers over past few years.

Despite flat top line over CY13-FY17, the company posted a strong growth of 11.2 percent and 10.6 percent in its EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) and profit after tax over the same period, respectively. Over the same period, EBITDA margin also expanded by 438 bps and was at 14.3 percent in FY17.


The management is focussed on maintaining margins even if that comes at the cost of sales volumes. Hence, the company’s top line growth was muted and its profitability grew significantly and margins expanded even in times when raw material prices were not favourable.

Invest in mutual funds

Over the years, investing in mutual funds has emerged as a popular option among a vast population of investors with varied incomes and risk appetites as mutual funds have outperformed most investments avenues in last few years. However, there are many myths or misconceptions related to mutual fund investment which may result in a wrong investment decision.

Abhinav Angirish, Managing Director, Abchlor Investment Advisors Private Limited told Moneycontrol about the various misconceptions which many investors hold while buying mutual funds. Here are the myths:

History will always repeat

Everyone who tends to invest in mutual funds first looks at the historic performance of the fund and then decides to make the investment. Therefore we can clearly say everyone feels the future performance will be linked to the previous performance and will fall in line. If future was based on past, every analyst would have made money thick & fast which is clearly a myth.


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Lower the NAV, cheaper is my fund

Commonly believed that when the NAV is lower, the fund is cheaper and hence will provide higher returns. NAV is nothing but the current market value of the portfolio today. Older the fund, higher is the NAV as the market value grows over a period of time.

The investment has to be for very long-term

When someone suggests a mutual fund, the first question asked is whether it is “long-term " investment. The fact is it's good if you invest for a very long term, as you reap the benefits of compounding, but one who needs money sooner can also invest with a view of getting the better return than other asset classes. There are multiple schemes to choose from that suit different types of investors.

The investment sum has to be big!!

A common myth among investors is everyone feels one must have a large number of funds to invest in a mutual fund. But the ground reality is that you can start investing in a fund with as small as Rs 500 only.

One can add or subtract stocks according to their choice

There is a common myth in everyone's mind that you can customise your portfolio, that is, one can add or subtract a particular stock from a fund if you want which is clearly not true as this feature is only available in PMS (Portfolio Management Services) and is outside the scope of mutual funds.

Mutual fund equals to no risk

Many mutual fund investors feel making investments in any scheme is risk-free and it is certain that it will perform around their expected mark, which is the reason regulators have made it compulsory for the fund runners to apprise the client about the risks of the investments. This acknowledgement is always made to you, when you sign the document of an agreement while investing, which is often missed by investors.

Investing in higher rated funds will fetch higher returns

People believe that the fund which has the highest ratings are safe and will give the best returns. The truth is mutual fund ratings are dynamic and are based on the performance of the fund at that given point. So, a fund that is rated highly today, may not necessarily maintain its high rating tomorrow and it also doesn't guarantee a better performance going forward.

Dividend declared by mutual funds are windfall income

Manish Kothari – Director, Mutual Funds, Paisabazaar.com said that mutual fund dividends are not windfall income as it is often projected to be. The dividend amount is paid out of investor’s own investment and hence, the fund’s NAV gets reduced by the amount paid as dividend. Moreover, the dividend amount is calculated on the fund’s face value, not the NAV. For example, assume that a scheme with a NAV of Rs 40 declares a 30% dividend. The dividend amount, in this case, would be Rs 3 (30% of Rs 10 face value) and the NAV of that scheme will come down to Rs 37 after the dividend record date.


"Investing in a mutual fund for the purpose of availing dividends is a futile exercise, and not recommended. Instead, opt for the growth option of mutual fund schemes to benefit from the power of compounding effect," said Kothari.

Benchmark of schemes

If you are a mutual fund investor, it would help you in having a diversified portfolio of funds. Diversification does not mean only investing in a number of schemes to minimise your mutual fund's portfolio risk. If you want to achieve true diversification, you need to invest in schemes having different stock holdings/securities, benchmarks, market risk factor, MF categories, etc. Therefore, whenever you are building up a diversified portfolio, you should look at all these parameters so that you can achieve significant improvements in the portfolio and thereby increasing your returns potential and decreasing risks while having the right asset mix.

“Diversification basically means investing in a manner that failure in one security or an economic slump affecting one of them will not be damaging to your portfolio,” said Abhinav Angirish, Managing Director, Abchlor Investment Advisor.

Here are few things you should know how investing in different mutual fund schemes helps in minimising risk.

Understand the allocation of investments


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Investors think that their work is done once they have invested in a mutual fund, but actually, that’s not the case. While investing, proper diversification can be achieved while making the selection of schemes. “Going by the principle of diversification, it is important to allocate one’s investments in various options rather than limiting to one or a few. One should be cognizant of the fact that combination of equity and debt funds is similar to other hybrid funds (Balance, Hybrid, Dynamic Asset Allocation), with the possible exception of tax benefit in hybrid fund categories. The allocation between debt and equity funds can be managed by choosing between strategic asset allocation and tactical asset allocation,” said Anjaneya Gautam - National Head - Mutual Funds, Bajaj Capital.

You may also read: Understanding diversification and how it creates a less-risky portfolio

Know the various stocks holding

Dhaval Kapadia - Director, Portfolio Strategist, Morningstar Investment Advisers Ltd said that while constructing a mutual fund portfolio, it is important to hold unique funds within an asset class which would enable an investor to harness the benefits of diversification. This could be done by evaluating parameters such as the fund’s investment style, the correlation between funds, stock overlap, etc. The objective should be to establish a specific role for each fund to play in the overall portfolio by selecting funds that are clearly different from one another, rather than similar or redundant ones. “Holding funds with different stock holdings or low portfolio overlap provides diversification benefit and would typically help in reducing the risk of the portfolio and potentially it improves the risk-reward rather than maximise return,” he said.


Have funds of different AMC’s

Every asset management company (AMC) designs their own scheme having certain investment objective. Choosing funds from different AMC’s can also help in reducing risk as the investment objective differs from company to company thereby returns may vary even though most of the stock holding remains the same between two schemes of different AMC. Also, call taken by different fund managers while managing their funds varies which in turn can reduce the overall risk in your portfolio.

Investment horizon should vary

The investment horizon of two different schemes can also reduce the risk in your portfolio because the investment objective differs from scheme to scheme. Most importantly, you should link your investment to a specific financial goal. Combination of asset class level and fund level diversification will ultimately help in bringing down the overall risk of the portfolio while investing money with a different time horizon in two particular schemes.

You may also read: Why you should invest in multiple funds to mitigate portfolio risk

Analyse the benchmark of schemes


Every mutual fund scheme has their own benchmark for say CNX 50, BSE mid-cap, BSE 100, etc. which means that the stock holding belongs to the companies which are listed either in NSE (National Stock Exchange) or BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) and accordingly, the risk varies as per the benchmark of the scheme. Therefore, one should try and have different schemes in their portfolios with different benchmarks. Having schemes from different AMC with the same benchmark may not give you true diversification.

Foreign Institutional Investor

What is a 'Foreign Institutional Investor - FII'
A foreign institutional investor (FII) is an investor or investment fund registered in a country outside of the one in which it is investing. Institutional investors most notably include hedge funds, insurance companies, pension funds and mutual funds. The term is used most commonly in India and refers to outside companies investing in the financial markets of India.

BREAKING DOWN 'Foreign Institutional Investor - FII'
An FII is any type of large investor who does business in a country other than the one in which the investment instrument is being purchased. In addition to the types of investors above, others include banks, large corporate buyers or representatives of large institutions. All FIIs take a position in a foreign financial market on behalf of the home country in which they are registered.

FII in India
Countries with the highest volume of foreign institutional investments are those that have developing economies. These types of economies provide investors with higher growth potential than in mature economies. This is why these investors are most commonly found in India, all of which must register with the Securities and Exchange Board of India to participate in the market.

If, for example, a mutual fund in the United States sees an investment opportunity in an Indian-based company, it can purchase the equity on the Indian public exchange and take a long position in a high-growth stock. This also benefits domestic private investors who may not be able to register with the Securities and Exchange Board of India. Instead, they can invest in the mutual fund and take part in the high growth potential.

Regulations for Investing in Indian Companies
All FIIs are allowed to invest in India's primary and secondary capital markets only through the country's portfolio investment scheme (PIS). This scheme allows FIIs to purchase shares and debentures of Indian companies on the normal public exchanges in India.

However, there are many regulations included in the scheme. There is a ceiling for all FIIs that states the max investment amount can only be 24% of the paid-up capital of the Indian company receiving the investment. The max investment can be increased above 24% through board approval and the passing of a special resolution. The ceiling is reduced to 20% of the paid-up capital for investments in public sector banks.

The Reserve Bank of India monitors daily compliance with these ceilings for all foreign institutional investments. It checks compliance by implementing cutoff points 2% below the max investment amounts. This gives it a chance to caution the Indian company receiving the investment before allowing the final 2% to be invested.


The market has made solid comeback, after more than 10 percent correction seen in February and March 2018, with Nifty rising 14 percent from its March lows and Sensex gaining 15.5 percent.

The market has made solid comeback, after more than 10 percent correction seen in February and March 2018, with Nifty rising 14 percent f...