The market has made solid comeback, after more than 10
percent correction seen in February and March 2018, with Nifty rising 14
percent from its March lows and Sensex gaining 15.5 percent.
"The market lost euphoria three-four months ago and saw
deep correction which was awaited for long but look at the recovery after that
sell-off. The major reason behind this is corporate earnings which are more or
less in line or better-than-expected," Krishna Kumar Karwa, MD, Emkay
Global Financial Services told CNBC-TV18.
He said the rally seen in the market is largely led by 5-6
large-cap companies, and the mid and smallcaps are far away from their peaks
seen in January 2018.
The broader markets also saw sharp correction that was
deeper than the frontliners. This was fairly expected because Nifty Midcap and
BSE Smallcap indices rallied 47 percent and 57 percent, respectively, in 2017.
Both indices showed decent recovery from 2018 lows after falling sharply, but
they are still down 9 percent and 12 percent, respectively, in 2018.
Krishna Kumar Karwa
Krishna Kumar Karwa
MD & CFO|Emkay Global Financial Services
Brace for volatility in 2018; prudent to follow bottom-up
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"Post deep cuts, decent recovery has happened but there
is still decent amount of volatility likely in the broader space," Karwa
said.
He further said the liquidity is going to be a challenge
globally due to rising interest rates, though domestic flow remained stable.
"Unless we have bigger amount of FII flow in midcaps and smallcaps, we
still remain cautious on the space."
On the domestic flow front, he said mutual funds have still
been getting Rs 7,000-8,000 crore worth of funds through systematic investment
plan (SIP), which is decent amount of flow and will continue to do so going
ahead but large ticket investors (institutional) where there has been a fall in
flow.
But Karwa is not concerned about large-ticket investors'
flow.
Sindhu Sameer, Co-Head Equity Sales at Emkay Global
Financial Services said retail flow through SIP of around Rs 6,000-8,000 crore
are marginally dipping but in absolute terms, it is still an outstanding number
to see.
"My father used to say invest in provident fund but now
the situation has changed and I will advise my daughter to invest in SIP."
Overall, India has surplus capital, stability in crude oil
prices, etc. so it is on a slow grinding wheels, he feels. It means India is on
a growth path.
He said there will be some kind of hiccups but in the longer
term, it will not affect growth in India.
Krishna Kumar Karwa's Take
Chemical Sector
In the chemical space, there is a tailwind from China angle,
wherein some capacities closed down for various reasons but individual
companies in India are reaching their size and scale in a such way that global
investors want to use India as a manufacturing wave, Karwa said.
He sees lot of scope in specialty chemical space.
"Biggest companies in the space have Rs 12,000-13,000 crore in market cap
which indicated that there is still large scope left."
Corporate Banks
Emkay Global has ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank in its portfolio.
While asking on corporate banks, Karwa said retail private
banks have done extremely well and should outperform over next 12-18 months.
"These corporate facing banks may post stellar returns going ahead."
NBFCs
Non-banking finance companies have shown strong recovery in
earnings and even in the stock performance after that bad era of GST and
demonetisation.
The only headwind Karwa sees is in the housing finance
companies due to rising interest rate scenario. "This space may struggle
for next 1-2 years."
He believes rural India facing NBFCs are in a sweet spot and
they seem to be doing very well going ahead where he is positive on.
Unsecured loan space will also continue to do well while
asset management company and wealth management firm are good long term stories,
he said
Sindhu Sameer on Sectors
FMCG
FMCG companies business model has been getting superior and
there is no scary moment in the space, he said. "There is potential fear
of derating but with five-year view, this sector still makes sense to
invest."
"In the last two quarters, compounded annual growth
rate in entire sector was 17-18 percent and in top companies the growth was
18-19 percent. Even return on equity notching up by 3-4 percent," he
reasoned.
Global market leaders in several sectors (like Motherson
Sumi in auto ancillary space)
Overall there was crisis 2-3-year back but these kind of
companies come back very nicely, he said, adding these business models have
proven that.
In a quarter or two, due to rising commodity pressure there
might be some pressure but it is the time to hold such good companies
considering their acquisition pace.
First Published on Aug 8, 2018 12:00 pm
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Last Updated : Aug 08, 2018 12:56 PM IST | Source: Investmentidea.com
Gold prices to trade higher today: Investmentidea
According to Investmentidea, on Tuesday, spot gold prices
rose 0.4 percent to close at $1210.6 per ounce having drifted near $1,200 an
ounce this week, as the U.S. dollar fell versus China's yuan against a backdrop
of U.S. - China trade tensions.
Investmentidea' report on Gold
On Tuesday, spot gold prices rose 0.4 percent to close at
$1210.6 per ounce having drifted near $1,200 an ounce this week, as the U.S.
dollar fell versus China's yuan against a backdrop of U.S. - China trade
tensions. Chinese shares jumped the most in more than two years on investor
hopes of fresh government spending and amid a pause in the trade tensions,
while the dollar slid versus the yuan and a currency basket. The United States
will begin collecting 25 percent tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese
goods on Aug. 23, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said on Tuesday as it
published a final tariff list targeting 279 imported product lines. On the MCX,
gold prices declined marginally by 0.11 percent to close at Rs.29597 per 10
gms.
Outlook
Imposition of tariffs by the US on Chinese imports on August
23 and fresh government spending by China are possible near term factors for
the rise in yellow metal. On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade higher
today, international markets are trading higher by 0.22 percent at $1213 per
ounce.
For all commodities report, click here
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by
investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on investmentidea.com are
their own, and not that of the website or its management. Investmentidea.com
advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment
decisions.
Read More
First Published on Aug 8, 2018 12:56 pm
TAGS #Investmentidea #Brokerage Recos - Commodities #Gold
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Last Updated : Aug 08, 2018 12:40 PM IST | Source: Investmentidea.com
M&M: Strong Q1 performance, value investors should
accumulate
M&M trades at a steep discount to peer groups. There is
headroom to catch up, riding on rural recovery and product innovation. Value
investors should accumulate M&M for the long term.
Madhuchanda Dey
M&M
WatchlistPortfolioMessageSet Alert
NSELIVE
08 Aug, 2018 13:20
927.10 0.10 (0.01%)
Volume 1508470 Todays L/H 924.00938.95
More
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) started FY19 on a strong
note, with both the automotive and tractor businesses reporting impressive
numbers. The macro appears supportive for the tractor business. In the
automotive segment, new product launches should help sustain the momentum. The
company derives significant value from its subsidiaries. Its core business is
still available at a compelling valuation for long term investors.
Quarterly snapshot
MM1
Adjusted for Goods & Service Tax rollout in the tractor
business, revenue grew 22.8 percent at Rs 13,358 crore. Growth in automotive
and farm equipment (predominantly tractor) stood at 22.6 percent and 24.2
percent, respectively. While volume growth in late teens was robust, the
healthy topline performance resulted in economies of scale. The company managed
significant margin expansion, with automotive and farm equipment earnings
before interest and tax (EBIT) margin expanding 260 basis points year-on-year
(YoY) and 250 bps, respectively. The blended margin saw a 260 bps spike to 15.8
percent.
However, investors have to bear in mind that the year-ago
quarter witnessed a pre-GST impact, wherein the management made a provision of
Rs 144 crore. Adjusting for the same, the growth in revenue, operating profit
and profit after tax would have been 21.2 percent, 33.7 percent and 49 percent,
respectively.
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Automotive and farm segments EBIT surged 69.5 percent and
40.9 percent, respectively. Adjusting for the GST provision, growth stood at
49.2 percent and 27 percent, respectively.
The strong operating performance led to impressive
bottomline growth.
Farm equipment division: Strong near term outlook
M&M is the market leader in tractors and has been
gaining market share for the last three-to-four years. While the tractor
business experiences three-to-four years of upcycle, the management is
optimistic that the strong momentum seen in FY19 might not wane altogether in
FY20. It has revised its growth forecast for this segment from the erstwhile
8-10 percent to 12-14 percent for FY19.
A normal monsoon, high reservoir levels, in line Rabi
harvest, hike in kharif minimum support prices and rise in non-farm income on
the back of an increase in infrastructure activities are all providing strong
opportunities for tractor sales.
Newly launched Trakstar (by subsidiary Gromax) has doubled
its volume in the quarter gone by. It is seeing strong traction in farm
machines, although the business is still quite small.
In the near term, the coming quarter (Q2) might be a tad
soft as Diwali this year falls in November, but the overall outlook seems
extremely promising. The company is carrying below industry inventory levels
which is a strong positive. While it will have to grapple with a high base in
FY20, the management is optimistic about 8-10 percent growth.
Automotive segment: Product launches critical
M&M doesn’t seem overly worried about the impact of the
recent 50 bps rate hike or the hike in fuel prices impacting the transport
sector. The management alluded to strong demand from rural areas.
The automotive numbers definitely benefitted from a low base
in the year-ago quarter, wherein volumes for passenger vehicles were lower due
to slowdown in demand preceding GST. The same for commercial vehicles was
impacted due to supply constraints arising from implementation of Bharat Stage
IV norms. Heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) has been a stellar performer and now
commands a market share of 5.7 percent. It doesn’t see significant impact from
the recent axle load norms on HCV sales as the new vehicles will take time to
hit the market.
MM2
The automaker has an interesting launch pipeline with U321
(a multi-purpose vehicle) by September and two more utility vehicles one before
and one after Diwali. In the CV space, the Furio ICV (intermediate commercial vehicle)
rollout is expected around Diwali. While 2019 is going to be relatively dull in
terms of new launches, the success of upcoming launches will define the
automotive outlook for FY20.
Undemanding valuation
A strong FY19 raises multiple questions about the sustenance
of this strong showing going forward. While growth is likely to moderate, the
valuation captures the same.
If we follow a sum-of-the-parts valuation (SOTP) and exclude
the value of subsidiaries, the core automobile business trades close to 15
times FY20 projected earnings. Considering a decent outlook, this is at a steep
discount to peer groups that typically trade at multiples of 17-20 times. There
is headroom to catch up, riding on rural recovery and product innovation. Value
investors should accumulate M&M for the long term.
MM3
MM4
First Published on Aug 8, 2018 12:40 pm
TAGS #Business #Mahindra & Mahindra #Investmentidea
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Last Updated : Aug 08, 2018 12:33 PM IST | Source: Investmentidea.com
Opinion | New courts for IBC will help, but more needs to be
done
Resolving insolvency cases speedily is necessary to clean up
the balance sheet of both banks and corporate India and is a key condition to
kick-start bank lending and boost private investment demand
Ravi Krishnan
@writesravi
The Ministry of Corporate Affairs has proposed setting up of
eight new courts under the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) to deal
exclusively with Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code cases, reports the Business
Standard. That’s a much needed boost for the company court which is struggling
with a backlog of pending cases. Resolving insolvency cases speedily is
necessary to clean up the balance sheets of both banks and corporate India. It
is also a key condition to kick-start bank lending and boost private investment
demand.
According to data presented to the Rajya Sabha, there were
9,073 cases under consideration by NCLT at the end of January. That included
1,630 cases of mergers, 2,511 cases of insolvency and 4,932 cases under other
sections of the Companies Act. These
numbers have only increased and are set to accelerate as Reserve Bank of India
new norms nudge banks to speedily refer default cases to NCLT if they are not
resolved within 180 days of the first non-payment of dues.
But the numbers also show that the pace of admission and
resolution has been slow. Since the legislation kicked in , only 701 cases have
been admitted under insolvency law till March, according to data from the
Insolvency & Bankruptcy Board of India’s (IBBI) quarterly bulletin. Of
these, 22 cases have gone into resolution and liquidation has started in 97
firms.
Infrastructure in the form of increasing number of courts to
deal with the influx of cases is only the first step. Far more needs to be done
especially when it comes to timely resolution. The cornerstone of IBC is the
fact that resolution must happen within 270 days of a case being admitted. That
is under threat.
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There are delays happening at two stages. One, cases are
taking long to get admitted because the Supreme Court has ruled that judicial discretion needs to
be applied before an insolvency case is admitted to the NCLT. Last year, the
National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) had ruled that the 14-day
timeline for rejecting or admitting a case under the bankruptcy was only
directive and not mandatory. When courts are struggling with so many cases,
making admission of cases a clerical decision would hasten the process.
Two, the 270-day timeline is not being strictly adhered to.
Part of this is owing to the fact that the bankruptcy law is still in the
teething stage. There have been two amendments in the last 12 months, which has
led to a bunch of litigation. However, NCLAT has ruled that the 270-day
timeline does not include time spent on issues outside the control of
bidders/resolution professional such as stay on litigation, time taken by the
resolution profession to take charge of a case, etc. In some other cases, the
NCLT has allowed bidders to submit revised bids, which leads to further rounds
of litigation and more delays.
Thus, high profile bankruptcy cases such as those of Essar
Steel, Bhushan Power & Steel and Binani Cement are still pending before one
court or the other with the 270-day deadline whooshing by. Nearly a year has
passed since the RBI referred 12 big defaulters who held a quarter of the
banking system’s bad loans between them to courts under the bankruptcy law. So
far, only 4 cases from the big 12 have been resolved. From RBI’s second list of
28 firms, only 17 have been admitted.
The pace of cases passing through the bankruptcy system
needs to be hastened to solve the twin balance sheet problem. Many of the
assets that form the underlying basis for the bulk of the banking system’s Rs
10 lakh crore bad loans are either inoperative or working at low capacity. A
successful resolution means they can get back to business as usual. Higher
revenue and profits is good for the company, its employees and suppliers and
also for the economy. A resolution package will see banks take a partial
haircut and the rest will be repaid or restructured. Even if the asset is sold on
a piecemeal basis, i.e. it is liquidated, there are higher chances it will
become operative. Either way, the loan book of banks becomes healthier. If the
new owners run the business well, they should soon begin to earn interest on
the restructured loans as well.
First Published on Aug 8, 2018 12:33 pm
TAGS #Bankruptcy #Banks #Business #Courts #IBC #Liquidation
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